Posted 4:07 PM by Floyd

There has been some blogging -- by Instapundit and Matt Welch -- about a Bush administration proposal to reduce tariffs to zero by the year 2015. When I first heard read these reports, I rolled my eyes and waved my fist back and forth at a right angle from my crotch. 2015 is seven years after Bush will leave office, assuming he is reelected. I remember from my youth how Congress would pass "balanced budget" proposals to cut spending -- with the bulk of the cuts occuring ten to twenty years in the future.

You can tell from the following paragraph that the Bush administration plans to lose twenty pounds -- just as soon as it gets done finishing a really yummy bag of chocolates:

The key elements of the US proposal, according to industry and congressional officials briefed on the plan, are: A rapid reduction in high tariffs on non-agricultural products, so that by 2010 there would be no tariffs above 8 per cent. All tariffs would then be reduced progressively to zero by 2015. The elimination, no later than 2010, of all duties that are currently below 5 per cent. A parallel initiative calling for faster elimination of tariffs in many industrial sectors such as chemicals, paper, wood and construction equipment.

Let's see what tariffs will not be eliminated quickly:

• Steel, which tariff Bush whored for the three electoral votes of West Virginia;
  
• Agricultural products such as sugar, the tariff for which mademoiselles Terrell and Landrieu have pledged their undying support so that they may be elected Senator of Louisiana;
  

Also note that nothing has been said about federal subsidies to American farmers, which undercut foreign competitors. These subsidies average 17 billion dollars per year.

There are two positive notes which make me slightly less pessimistic about this proposal than the bullshit budgets I mentioned. First, any plan to reduce tariffs will involve negotiations with other nations. The people holding power in 2010 or 2015 will be more reluctant to trash these agreements than to undo a "balanced budget" act. Second, free trade was an issue in textile-producing North Carolina (current tariff: 17.5%). Liddy Dole was pro-free-trade, and crushed the anti-trade Erskine Bowles.

Still, I will believe tariff reduction when I see it. Bush lost a lot of political and moral capital with his steel tariffs. I see no reason to trust a person who stuffs his face with ice cream as he tells you about his plans for a diet.