Posted 5:32 PM by Floyd

Jay Manifold of A Voyage to Arcturus sent a friendly letter about my post questioning whether Europe's decline is inevitable. Publishing letters of praise is part of what makes The Declarer a fearless, no-holds-barred blog. Jay's letter is indented; my reply is flush.

I would point out, however, that a sufficiently astute prognosticator could
have forecast America's recovery in 1979, by looking at Carter's decontrol
of aviation, natural gas, petroleum, and trucking; the capital gains tax
cut; and appointment of Paul Volcker to chair the Federal Reserve (Greenspan
has simply continued Volcker's policies ever since). Declines in crime
rates were bound to happen eventually, largely due to demographic shifts.

Yes, I did think of that while writing my post. More counter-arguments: The
Republican efforts to cut taxes in 1978, Proposition 13's passage in 1978,
and Reagan's near nomination in 1976.

But -- these events might not have been visible to a foreign observer in Europe
who did not speak English. Much of what goes on in European politics is
not easily discernable to an American observer. Us bloggers probably rely
too much on the Internet; I don't think shifts in a nation's political beliefs
will necessarily be visible there.

As for crime, it has been my impression that in the 90's the American crime
rate has declined, and such decline was not simply due to demographics,
as earlier declines were. (Simple example: New York under Guliani.) But I
am not an expert and do not even know the statistics that well, so I could be
swayed by counter-argument.

Disclaimer: I am neither a Democrat nor a Republican -- I believe that
Reagan's ability to inspire self-confidence in the electorate has been
without parallel in my lifetime and was itself instrumental in our rebound.

The question would be, what signs are there that Europe is beginning to
pursue policies which will turn things around?

I guess events similar to those of the late 70's: Tax cuts, privatisation, easing of
regulations, willingness to say that crime is wrong. It doesn't look good at the
moment, but Europe now is not like America of 1979; more like America of 1965,
when unproductive policies had considerable public support.

And there has been some good news, both recently and in the last 20 years. Ireland
has pursued free-market policies and cut taxes; Italy has elected a less spendthrift
government; the late Pym Fortuyn appears to have been on the side of liberty and progress;
Sweden moved away from socialism. And of course the UK had its own earthshaking political
event in 1979.

For a much more distant historical example, consider the Roman Empire during
the 260s and 270s. It appeared to be on the ropes, but (even in the west)
recovered and held together for another century and a half. The east, of
course, remained relatively functional and powerful until the "Fourth
Crusade" plundered Constantinople in 1204.

For some reason I seem to get in arguments with bloggers about Roman history
quite frequently ... I disagree that the Western Empire turned things around in
the same way that America did 20 years ago. Constantine destroyed the Western
empire to save it; the economy was socialist and the government totalitarian.
By the year 500 there were no cities of consequence in Gaul, Britain, or Spain,
because the Roman government taxed them out of existence.

As for the East, they hung in there for awhile, but it was a long and steady decline.