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Mostly political; some random geekery.
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Friday, January 23, 2004
Just got back from a two-day business trip to Seattle. Some very brief observations:
While driving home tonight I heard New Hampshire campaign news on KCBS radio. Shouty Dean stated that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan should be replaced because he was in favor of George Bush's tax cuts.
This leads to some very interesting questions. Does Dean believe that there was an economic boom under Bill Clinton? If not, I think we are owed an explanation. If so, Dean should probably explain whether Greenspan was an effective member of Clinton's economic team. That answer should be even more fruitful. If Dean says, no, Greenspan was a dud, then how would he explain that Greenspan was the Fed Chairman for all eight years, zero months, zero days of Clinton's two terms? And if Greenspan was instrumental in bringing about the roaring economy of the 1990's, what does this say about Howard Dean? "Citizen, Messieur Greenspan is one of our leading monetary experts and --" "A la lanterne!" There's no rush for Dean to tell us that he was just having a bit of fun, or that he was trying to entertain some of his hard-working campaigners. These questions can be explored at great length during the months of October and November. Tuesday, January 20, 2004
Last Sunday Sherry and I played bridge at a sectional in San Francisco, near the Zoo, with our friends Eric and Scott. The event was a "bracketed Swiss". The field was divided into brackets of 8 teams with the same relative experience. In each bracket all the teams played each other. We were in the third-most-experienced bracket, or "Flight C". We had an embarrassingly slow start and had 30 VP's (out of a possible 160) at the break. Here is a hand I held in that first half: xxxxx xx J9xx xxSherry dealt, vulnerable versus not, and opened 2 . RHO bid 2 and I passed. LHO raised to 3 . Sherry bid 3 over this. I raised to 4 , and now LHO bid again: 5 .Partner doubles. Do you pull or pass? If you pass, what do you lead? I passed (I think I would pass no matter what, but when Sherry made a very slow double it became automatic). I led a club, which was not a success as it picked off Sherry's Kx and our diamond tricks ran away on dummy's clubs. If you pull, you go -200 and push the other table. If you lead a diamond, you beat the contract one. If you lead anything else, lose 11. Evan Kirchhoff and his friend Mary were curious to see what a bridge tournament looked like, so they watched us during the fifth round. On one hand I did something which I had never done before or seen done: I opened a notrump and bid a three card suit naturally! I held KQx KJxx AKxx xx and opened 1N (15-17) at none vulnerable. Sherry bid 2 Stayman, asking for a four-card major. RHO doubled to show clubs. I bid 2 , and LHO showed club support by bidding 3 .Sherry now bid 3 , which was natural and forcing. I assumed this showed four spades and an aversion to notrump. Well I certainly didn't want to bid notrump either, and thought a 4-3 spade fit might play well. I feared that bidding 4 or 4 would make it too hard to play spades. So I bid 3 ! Partner raised this to four, holding: ATxx AQx QTxxx xLHO led a diamond and the spade jack dropped doubleton, so I made all the tricks. 6 is frigid. (Maybe partner could have bid 4 over 3 ? I would then bid 5 and then she can bid the slam.) Missing the slam didn't matter; at the other table my teammate did not double and the opponents rested in 3N, down one on a club lead.We picked up 52 VPs in the final three rounds to finish third.
A mere nine days ago, Evan Kirchhoff was detailing the best he placed on the 2004 presidential campaign at the TradeSports online book. TradeSports allows you to buy "contracts" that pay $100 if an event occurs. Evan bought Dean-to-win-Iowa at 70, and Dean-to-win-New-Hampshire at an astonishing 93, which is not much better than the odds you would get in Vegas if you bet on the better team to win a football game when it was up two touchdowns after three quarters.
Evan also purchased Dean-to-be-Democratic-nominee traded at 64.5, and Bush-to-win at 73.5. How does this portfolio look one day after the Iowa caucuses? Dean the Internet candidate is doing a very convincing imitation of an Internet stock. The contracts on Dean winning New Hampshire and the nomination are now selling at 31 and 25(!) respectively. Did I put an exclamation point there? Let me add a few more just in case: ! ! ! (I thought that Dean's collapse would hurt the perceived value of Bush, but he is holding steady at 70.) I'm not knocking Evan; I fully concurred with his analysis when I read it, and anyway he was smart enough to bet play money. But I don't feel sorry for Evan either. He got his pretend money's worth when Dean spoke to his supporters last night. Just in case you live in a cave, or are some wanker who did an internet search for Tim Bueller, I'll explain. Dean's collapse is due partly to his disappointing showing in Iowa, but also due to his amazing "concession" speech. Last night I saw the Drudge headline: DEAN GOES NUTS. I assumed that Drudge was just hyping some moderately interesting story. But this morning I heard the audio, and I have to commend Drudge on his reticence. If I were writing the headline it would be something like: HOLY SHIT! LEADING PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE POSSESSED BY DEMON! At the start of the clip a worked-up and hoarse Dean starts to yell: "We're going to California ... and Texas ... and New York" ... and several other states. Now the typical politician has spent his whole life avoiding any phrase or tone of voice that could make him look weird or stupid. So when a typical politician says this stuff, it sounds forced and phony. But Dean really means it. He's not going to go to California, he's going to GO TO CALIFORNIA AND RIP SOME HEARTS OUT! After enumerating the states he will go to, Dean says "And then we're going to go to Washington, to take back the White House!" And then he howls. The sound he made was described as something like "Yeeargh!" It doesn't really matter how you spell it, of course. How many nuclear weapons does this guy want to be in charge of? (Check out these Dean yell remixes from "Barlow Farms" and the wondrous renaissance man James Lileks.) Monday, January 19, 2004
We're all stars now in the dope show![]() They love you when you're on all the covers![]() When you're not then they love another![]()
Alex Heard coined the term "hathos": "that strange sensation produced by exposure to certain entertainers - a mixture of hatred, disgust, embarrassment, and pathos. Sometimes, if the performer is sufficiently schlocko or self-congratulatory, this feeling intensifies to a point at which, suddenly ... it becomes highly pleasurable." You can engage in a little hathos right now if you desire. Ladies and Gentlemen, by the grace of Jeff Jarvis, I bring you comedienne Margaret Cho's blog:
Actually I lied. Cho's blogging isn't a good subject for hathos; every single post is just as long-winded and interminible as the one I quoted. Margarent Cho's blog is what you would get if you crossed Steven Den Beste with Mark Morford.
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